US-China flights have dropped by a quarter compared to what they were before the pandemic. Here’s why
There are many opportunities in China that you can develop markets with, particularly the
787,” Jim Compton, United’s then-chief revenue officer said in July 2014. In July 2014, Jim Compton, United Airlines’ then chief revenue officer, stated that there were many opportunities to develop markets in China, especially with the
777. The Chicago-based carrier also returned to Taipei in Taiwan the year after the Chengdu service was launched, and added Xi’an, a Chinese city, to its map in 2016. Want more airline news? Sign up for TPG’s free biweekly Aviation newsletter.[Boeing]United was not alone. In 2019, airlines served the market with 5.2 million seats. Airlines served the market with 5.2 million seats in 2019.
While there were complaints of competitive pressures — especially by U.S. airlines of their Chinese competitors — the area was widely seen as an opportunity.
Fast forward to today — one global pandemic and geopolitical adjustment later — and things look very, very different for airlines on U.S.-China routes.
“Demand for China is down dramatically than where it was in 2019,” Andrew Nocella, United’s current chief commercial officer, said in July. In July, United’s current chief commercial officer Andrew Nocella said that the demand for China was down dramatically from where it was in 2019. This is the new normal. Nocella said that the “new normal” is a situation where 100 flights per week are restricted (50 each for the airlines of both countries). The Russian airspace is only closed to U.S. carriers, but not their Chinese counterparts. It’s also one where fewer Americans are traveling to China than Chinese nationals to the U.S.
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And United’s Chengdu flight? There are few nonstop US-China flights. A professor of finance at New York University Shanghai and the chair of Asia Aviation Valuation Advisors, he flies back and forth between the Washington, D.C., area and Shanghai frequently.
When asked about the experience, Yu’s first reaction was: “It costs a lot. When to fly: The best time to purchase an international flight is during these times.
The cost of the flights is high because there are few seats available.
The limited supply has led to the high prices. Cirium Diio shows that U.S. carriers fly just 39 nonstop flights per week, while their Chinese counterparts fly 50 flights, for a total of 89 flights. There were 340 flights per week before the coronavirus outbreak, nearly four times as many now. Cirium Diio reports that United Airlines connects Beijing and Shanghai with San Francisco. Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Xiamen Airlines have also resumed select flights.
“From the U.S., the flights are very expensive,” Yu said. “I am looking at round-trip tickets between $2,000 and $2,500, whereas before COVID-19 these tickets were from $800 to $1000. Google Flights reports that the cost of a round-trip economy ticket from Washington, D.C. to Shanghai, with only one connection each way — the shortest route available — was more than $1900 in mid-September on American and Delta. Travelers may find no-frills basic economy fares closer to $1,500, but those don’t allow seat selection or free changes.
‘Aeropolitical challenges’
Delta, in a February filing with the U.S. Department of Transportation, cited “ongoing aeropolitical challenges” for its request to idle 32 of its 42 weekly U.S.-China flight rights through October.
A Delta spokesperson was not available to elaborate on the airline’s meaning of “aeropolitical challenges. In a letter sent to the U.S. State Department in April by the trade group Airlines for America, which includes American, Delta, and United, the group highlighted the “competitive advantage” U.S. carriers face compared with their Sino counterparts due to the inability of U.S. airliners to fly over Russian airspace. Cirium Diio reports that Delta’s nonstop Detroit-Shanghai flight — the easternmost gateway to China for U.S. carriers — takes 15 hours 40 minutes. It takes 40 minutes more than China Eastern Airlines’ New York City-to-Shanghai nonstop route that overflies Russia (even though the Detroit-Shanghai route is physically about 250 miles shorter).
A slow return of American travelers
Even after the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions, the number of travelers between the U.S. and China remains a fraction of what it was in 2019. Only 1.2 million people flew between the two countries during the first seven months of 2024, compared to 5.1 million five years earlier, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.
Not only is the overall number of U.S.-China travelers down, but the market has been hit especially hard by a decline in the number of American travelers — who are more likely to buy a ticket on a U.S. airline. Chinese travelers are less affected by the drop, which could be a boon for Chinese carriers compared to those in the U.S. Data shows that the number of Americans who flew between the U.S. and China in the first seven month of 2019 was down three percentage points. The ITA data includes anyone who is flying between China, and the U.S. There are many factors that contribute to the slow rebound of Americans travelling to China. Yu says that high airfares, as well as changes in business travel patterns, are some of the factors. He said that people who are more casual travel more often Zoom and telecommute these days rather than flying.
