The UK used market is expected to be restricted until at least 2027
Cox Automotive’s Insight Quarterly (IQ) shared baseline projections for 2025, which indicate 7,458,356 used car transactions, a marginal 0.3% increase on 2024 levels. This subdued trajectory highlights a
Baseline projections for 2025, shared in Cox Automotive’s Insight Quarterly (IQ), indicate 7,458,356 used car transactions, a marginal 0.3% increase on 2024 levels.
This subdued trajectory highlights a market still lagging behind pre-pandemic trends and constrained by economic pressures and ongoing supply limitations.
Cox Automotive’s 2024 baseline accuracy (until the end of Q3) has tracked at 96.7% and 99.6% for its upside forecast.
“Demand for used vehicles remains stable, but the UK car parc is contracting, and overall vehicle registrations and transactions continue to fall short of peak levels seen from 2002-2008 and 2014-2019,” says Cox Automotive Insight Director, Philip Nothard. The market’s changing landscape is heavily influenced both by the increasing number of new energy vehicles and the changing production strategies of original equipment manufacturers.
Nothard says there is still a long way to go in bringing more dealers onboard to stock EVs, but those that have become early adopters are seeing certain models holding their value and even moving faster out the forecourts than some of their ICE equivalents.
In line with this, the forecast shows also predicts significant growth in NEV adoption within the used market, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increasing their share of transactions by over 50% in early 2024.
Despite this growth, ICE vehicles still dominate, especially given consumer concerns around EV charging infrastructure and affordability. BEV registrations on the used market will grow from 21% in 2017 to 34% in 2027. This indicates a gradual but steady change in consumer preferences.
While the used car market is seeing gradual growth, it remains constrained by current economic conditions.
Modest declines in UK interest rates are expected over the next few years, though inflation remains above historical averages, limiting consumer purchasing power.
As a result, affordability will be a primary factor shaping consumer decisions, with many buyers viewing used cars as a more financially viable alternative to higher-priced new vehicles.
“Our data suggest economic pressures will continue to influence consumer behaviour,” Nothard explains.
“While new car prices rise, affordability concerns and a strong demand for lower-cost alternatives are likely to keep used car sales steady. We expect that vehicle values in certain segments will remain high, especially ICE. With ongoing supply restrictions and a shrinking parc, we can expect to see a decline of around 4.47% over the next three-year period. Consumers may have fewer options in the traditional fuel category as OEMs shift to produce fewer ICE vehicles. This will drive competition for high quality used cars. Cox Automotive data indicates a tipping point in the UK used vehicle market by 2027. The supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic that reduced new car registrations to over three million have permanently changed the composition of used cars. While UK used car sales fell by 12% from 2016 to 2023, the forecasts indicate that they will gradually return to pre pandemic levels between 2027 and 2028. Demand for all used cars is expected to remain high as NEV options are made more accessible to consumers and interest in them continues to grow. The market is changing, but it is evident that the sector is resilient. It won’t all be smooth sailing.
