Lionsgate’s ‘Flight risk’ propels them to second place. 1 win with $11M
SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU :
It is bound to be the lowest grossing weekend of 2025, with $70.2M in total for all movies. And it’s not a snowstorm that’s to blame.
This is how the box office usually swings during this part of calendar. Box Office Mojo reported that all titles had a total of $54.5M at this point last year. That was the second-worst weekend in 2024. There are still some dead zones in the calendar, despite all the blah-blah of distribution heads about moviegoing being a 52-weekend business. It’s the Super Bowl week, with the Commanders taking on the Eagles and the Bills facing the Chiefs. So don’t expect many guys to be at the cinema today. This weekend, I hope it’s not as bad as what we have seen here.
Lionsgate is still seeing opportunity where others are looking for pitfalls. So, kudos to them again, this time with Mel Gibson’s directed and Mark Wahlberg-starring
Flight risk, which will give the studio its second No. 1 opening of the season with$12M. This is also Lionsgate’s second No. 1 opening of the year after Den of Thieves 2 : Pantera, since Hunger Games : Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. In November or early December 2023. In 2025, Lionsgate opened another movie at the top of tracking. ).
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Lionsgate
Despite the No. The film is a non-event, despite the fact that it was the No.1 opening for Wahlberg and Gibson (2x Oscar winner) (the filmmaker’s third No.1 opening after Passion of Christ and Apocalypto). The movie is not a big deal, even though the trailer says “Mayday Mayday, the Pilot is a Hitman”. This is because we have seen similar movies with planes in danger before. In fact, Michelle Dockery, who stars in Flight Risk, starred in one of these types of pics before back in their heyday, and that was 2014’s Liam Neeson Non-Stop which debuted to $28.8M ($92.1M domestic final).
Dockery in ‘Non-Stop’
Warner Bros/Everett Collection
Flightplan, a thriller by Jodie Foster from 2005, also had a $24.6M opening ($89.7M total). Lionsgate released Plane in January of last year to $10,2M. The plane genre is a familiar one to audiences. Flight Risk was originally scheduled for October 2024.
It’s worth mentioning that Wahlberg has been a box office draw of late. It’s been a long time since the two-time Oscar nominee has had a solo movie open to more than $20M, akin to Deepwater Horizon in 2016 ($20.2M), and Lone Survivor in 2014. Flight Risk’s debut here is not that far off from Mile 22, his STX action film which opened to $13.7M in 2018. It’s also above his recent solo turns Arthur The King ($7.6M), and Father Stu (which debuted at $5.4M). This means that Wahlberg is one of the main reasons moviegoers purchased tickets for this film, as 32% of PostTrak exits attributed to him. If you’re wondering why Lionsgate released two dude action films within two weeks, it is because Wahlberg attracts more women. Den of Thieves 2, Pantera, has 37% women/63% male. Flight Risk is 46% men/54% women.
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Lionsgate was criticized by a marketing source for releasing only two one-sheets, and one trailer. The bean-counting frugal studio won’t overspend on the limited goods (P&A in the mid $20Ms). The critics may have called Flight Risk “dumb”, or, as Bob Strauss of the San Francisco Chronicle complained “the equivalent of a suspenseful Spirit Airlines advertisement …”,,” audiences are not thrilled with the bumpy airflight movie through the mountains giving it a C CinemaScore and 63% in Rotten Tomatoes’ audience meter.
RelishMix reports that the “negative chatter about Flight Risk” has caused viewers to express their doubts in the project. “This movie is a write-off,” they say. ‘” Social media universe analytics at 79M across TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube are 40% behind other action thrillers per RelishMix. Guy Ritchie’s action movie The Gentleman by comparison had a reach of 104M on social before its opening in January 2020, the pic opening to $10.6M (again another comp here for Flight Risk, that Ritchie movie ending with a $36.4M stateside result).
What’s unfortunate is that we typically expect more from Gibson as a director in terms of delivering unique epic features, not been there, done that thrillers, and his first directorial in nine years here is no Hacksaw Ridge. Maybe Lionsgate, which roams in the faith-based sector, can talk him into making another Biblical or New Testament feature. That red state sector would totally show up for Gibson (PostTrak exits said 16% went to see Flight Risk for Gibson as a filmmaker). Still, despite the low start here for Flight Risk, what’s clear is that these older-dude leaning (this one 45% over 25), cookie-cutter action movies, particularly with stars, still need theatrical to propel them through the home entertainment window. And that’s what Lionsgate counts on with these titles.
Lionsgate ran spots during sports programming, including a college football bowl game takeover on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with on-air, in-program, and experiential elements, as well as spots in pre & post season NFL, NBA, and more. Of note, on social/digital there was a “Marks Go Free x Fandango” activation where Marks around the country redeemed 3,400 opening night tickets in just four hour.
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PLF screens are delivering 27% of the weekend for Flight Risk. The movie is playing the best in the South Central and West with the Harkins Estrella Falls 16 in Goodyear AZ the top grossing cinema in the nation with $13K so far.
Chart is updating.
Flight Risk
(LG) 3,161 theaters, Fri
$4.4M
- , Sat $5M, Sun $2.6M 3-day $12M/Wk 1Mufasa (Dis) 3,420 (-135) theaters, Fri $1.9M (-24%) Sat $4.3M Sun $2.5M 3-day $8.7M
- (-28%), Total $221M/Wk 6One of Them Days (Sony) 2,675 theaters, Fri $2.2M Sat $3.6M Sun $2M, 3-day $8M
- (-32%), Total $25M/Wk 2Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Par) 3,097 (-209) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-37%) Sat $2.7M Sun $1.7M 3-day $5.5M
- (-36%), Total $226M/Wk 6Moana 2 (Dis) 2,550 (-275) Fri $861K (-28%) Sat $2.1M Sun $1.3M 3-day $4.3M
- (-28%), Total $450M/Wk 9
6. Presence (NEON) 1,750 theaters, Fri
$1.38M Sat $1.23M Sun $800K 3-day $3.4M/Wk 1
Audiences like the Steven Soderbergh ghost story just a little bit more than Flight Risk at C+. PostTrak audiences fell asleep at 58% with a 33% definite recommend. At this level, among Soderbergh’s wide openings (north of 1,000 theaters), it’s his lowest opening after Unsane at $3.8M. The movie was reportedly shot for $2M over 11 days. It’s not clear what NEON paid for the movie, but they gave it a push with Julia Fox realtor billboards. That said, for a small studio with an even lower overhead than Lionsgate, these economics are where they dwell, read the Sydney Sweeney horror movie Immaculate which opened to $5.3M and legged out to $15.6M was considered a very good result for them (C CinemaScore). Presence’s opening his higher than NEON’s Cuckoo ($3M) and MUBI’s multi Oscar nominated genre movie The Substance ($3.2M opening, final domestic $16.8M), however, it’s not certain that Presence can pull off a 5x-plus multiple like Substance and Immaculate. Mostly men at 56%. Forty-one percent of moviegoers were 25-34 and 32% were over 35. Diversity demos were 53% Caucasian, 24% Hispanic/Latino, 11% Black, 9% Asian & 4% NatAm/Other. Best play for the Soderbergh movie is East, South Central and West with the AMC Burbank 30 the No. 1 domestic venue with $31K through Friday. Soderbergh has another movie coming out in Q1: Focus Features’ spy thriller Black Bag starring Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender on March 14.
6. Wolf Man
(Uni) 3,354 theaters, Fri $900K (-79%) Sat $1.5M Sun $940K 3-day
$3.4M (-69%), Total $17.8M/Wk 1
8. A Complete Unknown (Sea) 2,010 (-490) theaters, Fri $845K (-24%) Sat $1.4M Sun $855K 3-day
$3.1M (-24%) Total $62.9M, Wk 5
9. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (LG) 2,108 (-900) theaters, Fri $835K Sat $1.5M Sun $665K 3-day
$3M (-58%),Total $31.6M/Wk 3
10. The Brutalist (A24) 1,118 (+780) theaters, Fri $720K (+13%) Sat $1.2M Sun $943K 3-day
$2.87M (+45%), Total $9.3M/Wk 6
Other:
Focus Features
Nosferatu
(Focus) 1,973 (572) theaters, Fri $590K Sat $920K Sun $540K 3-day
$2.05M
(-51%) Total $93.2M/Wk 5Robert Eggers vampire movie is $3.6M away from becoming Focus’ highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office, surpassing 2019’s Downton Abbey at $96.2M. Brave the Dark (ANG) 2,230 theaters, Fri $930K Sat $899K Sun $737K 3-day
$2.56M
/Wk 1The Jared Harris drama from the faith-based studio gets an A CinemaScore. PostTrak is great at 86% and 66% definite recommend, but the faithful aren’t going. Turnout is 47% men, 53% women, 74% of the audience 35+ years old with the largest quad being 55+ at 37%.Diversity demos are 66% White, 15% Latino/Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian & 6% NatAm/Other. Highest grossing venue for the pic in the country? The Penn Cinema in Lititz PA with $25K so far.UPDATED, Friday midday:
Lionsgate is looking at its second No. 1 opening of 2025 with the Mel Gibson-directed and Mark Wahlberg-starring Flight Risk
, which is grossing $4 million-$4.5 million today and eyeing an opening that’s plus or minus $11M. Remember, it’s a big NFL weekend, so hopefully that doesn’t slide tackle the projections we’re seeing here.
The movie cost in the mid-$20M range, with Lionsgate funding two-thirds of that with foreign sales. P&A is around mid-$20Ms as well. Flight Risk is booked at 3,161 theaters.
In second today is the sixth weekend of Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King
at 3,420 sites with a
$1.65M Friday and $7.4M 3-day, off 39%, for a running total of $219.7M.
Third belongs to Sony’s second frame of its R-rated SZE and Keke Palmer comedy One of Them Days at 2,675 theaters, with
$2.1M Friday, $7M 3-day, off 41%, and a 10-day by Sunday EOD with $24.3M.
Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at 3,097 theaters is seeing a sixth Friday of
$950,000, 3-day of $4.4M, -49%, and a running cume of $225M.
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Fifth is a fight between Neon’s Steven Soderbergh-directed Presence
and Universal’s
Wolf Man for around $3M. Presence is looking at around $1.4M today at 1,730 locations, whereas as the Blumhouse horror film is defanging at -72% for a running cume by Sunday of $17.4M.
Angel Studios’ Brave the Dark at 2,230 sites is seeing around
$1M today and a $2.4M opening.PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Lionsgate’s release of Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk
starring Mark Wahlberg made in $950,000 in previews Thursday night. The last time Gibson directed was nine years ago, for the two-time Oscar-winning World War II movie Hacksaw Ridge, also from Lionsgate. It’s not clear yet whether Flight Risk will win the weekend — tracking is saying $9M-$11M — but if it does, it will rep the second No. 1 finish this month for Lionsgate joining Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, a feat the studio hasn’t pulled off since November 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. RELATED: Kit Harington Joins Mark Wahlberg In Apple And Skydance’s ‘The Family Plan’ Sequel
Flight Risk is booked at 3,100 theaters, of which 660 are Premium Large Format screens and 273 Motion seat screens (4DX, DBOX, MX4D). Reviews for Flight Risk are 25% on Rotten Tomatoes; Den of Thieves 2 stood at 60% with critics on RT, and that landed Lionsgate a No. 1 win with $15M.
Tracking service Quorum spots some of the gas leaking on Flight Risk: Unaided awareness has stalled at 4%, which is never a good sign in a pic’s final week, with interest slipping from 55% to 51%. Flight Risk was 3 stars with Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak audiences last night at 72% positive. Men at 58% and an overall audience at 80% over 25 showed up.
Headwinds Flight Risk will fly into this weekend include two NFL conference championship games. If Flight Risk nose-dives, it’s at the paws of Disney’s
Mufasa; The Lion King,
which is heading into its sixth weekend with an eye at
$8M-$9M. Mufasa won its fifth week with $18M (-4%) and has a running cumeof $212.3M. The added bonus for Mufasa: It’s not on PVOD, and it’s purely theatrical. Exhibitors are rewarding Disney with those window terms this weekend with solid screen holds. Callina Liang in ‘Presence’
Neon
Neon’s drone-shot ghost thriller
Presence from Steven Soderbergh, which it took the world on a year ago after the pic’s Sundance premiere, is eyeing a
$2M-$3M opening at 1,750 theaters. Previews were $385K. In its pure Thursday night previews alone, as a comp, Mubi’s The Substance in September did $327K before opening to $3.2M. Presence is 89% certified fresh with critics, and 2 stars with last night’s PostTrak audience, who were 61% men, 73% over the age of 25.
Neon beat out 10 other bidders at the festival for Presence a year ago, the deal at the time coming 35 years after Soderbergh’s $1 million Sundance deal for his career splash sex, lies, & videotape and subsequent Palme d’Or win at Cannes. In Presence, a family moves into a suburban house and becomes convinced they are not alone. A supernatural force has infiltrated the house and takes a specific interest in the couple’s daughter. Lucy Liu stars with Chris Sullivan, Callina Liang, Julia Fox, Eddy Maday and West Mulholland.‘Brave the Dark’
Courtesy of Keystone Brave LLC
Angel Studios has the Damian Harris-directed, Jared Harris-starring
Brave the Dark, which also looks to do in the single digits at 2,200 sites. Previews were
$200K last night, per sources. PostTrak exits are 4 1/2 stars with a 62% definite recommend for the turnout, which leaned 51% female and 63% over 45 turnout. Mad Men’s Harris plays Mr. Deen, who discovers one of his students, Nate, has been living out of his car and thrown into jail. Mr. Deen decides to bail him out, determined to curb Nate’s self-destructive behavior, but quickly discovers a host of dark secrets that are slowly tearing Nate apart. What started as a good deed becomes a desperate fight to save Nate from his own demons.
Second for the week was Sony’s R-rated Keke Palmer-SZE comedy One of Them Days with
$17M after a $938K Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The movie could ease around 40% in its second weekend. Third for the week was Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, which did not delight with $14.4M in week one at 3,354 sites. Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $12.7M (-11%), good for a running total of $220.5M; the pic is currently on digital PVOD. Fifth for the week is Den of Thieves 2 with $9.2M (-53%) at 3,008 sites and a running total of $28.8M.
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