Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, warns that AI will surpass the ‘country’s geniuses by 2026
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Artificial intelligence will match the collective intelligence of “a country of geniuses” within two years, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned today in a sharp critique of this week’s AI Action Summit in Paris. His timeline — targeting 2026 or 2027 — marks one of the most specific predictions yet from a major AI leader about the technology’s advancement toward superintelligence.
Amodei labeled the Paris summit a “missed opportunity,” challenging the international community’s leisurely pace toward AI governance. His warning arrives at a pivotal moment, as democratic and authoritarian nations compete for dominance in AI development.
“We must ensure democratic societies lead in AI, and that authoritarian countries do not use it to establish global military dominance,” Amodei wrote in Anthropic’s official statement. His concerns extend beyond geopolitical competition to encompass supply chain vulnerabilities in chips, semiconductor manufacturing, and cybersecurity.
The summit exposed deepening fractures in the international approach to AI regulation. JD Vance, the U.S. vice president, rejected European regulatory proposals as being “massive” in scope and restrictive. The U.S. and U.K. notably refused to sign the summit’s commitments, highlighting the growing challenge of achieving consensus on AI governance.
Anthropic has positioned itself as an advocate for transparency in AI development. This week, the company released its Economic Index to track AI’s effect on labor markets. Its competitors are more secretive. This initiative addresses mounting concerns about AI’s potential to reshape global employment patterns.
Three critical issues dominated Amodei’s message: maintaining democratic leadership in AI development, managing security risks, and preparing for economic disruption. Race against time to control Superintelligent AI: A two-year window. Amodei’s prediction that AI would reach genius-level capabilities in 2027, with 2030 being the most recent estimate, suggests that current governance structures could prove inadequate to manage next-generation AI. International pressure is mounting to implement effective controls before AI abilities surpass our ability govern them. The question now becomes whether governments can match the accelerating pace of AI development with equally swift regulatory responses.
The Paris summit’s aftermath leaves the tech industry and governments wrestling with a fundamental challenge: how to balance AI’s unprecedented economic and scientific opportunities against its equally unprecedented risks. As Amodei suggests, the window for establishing effective international governance is rapidly closing.
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